Bitcoin’s price hit its highest weekly close since January 2018.
Long-term technical indicators are bullish, while short-term ones look bearish.
BTC could move in a short term ascending parallel channel.
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During the week of October 19-26, Bitcoin (BTC) closed above $ 13,000. The long term trend is bullish, but the short term chart has started to show weaknesses.
Going above or below the current parallel channel will likely determine the direction of movement in the short term.
Weekly bullish close for Bitcoin
During the week of October 19-26, BTC price created a bullish recovery candlestick with a body measuring 13.5% in magnitude. Its weekly close at $ 13,039 is the highest since January 2018.
BTC is still moving near the long term resistance of $ 13,500 to $ 14,000, created by the candle highs of July 2019. That said, it has already crossed above the resistance of $ 11,800, created by weekly closings since February 2018 (dotted line below).
It is therefore possible that Bitcoin has already broken through a crucial resistance zone. A move maintained above $ 13,500 would strengthen this hypothesis.
Interestingly, the recent rise did not generate a bearish divergence in the RSI given that the latter’s recent high was slightly above that of August 17th. Additionally, the Stochastic Oscillator is still rising, so there is no weakness present in the daily timescale yet.
In the daily timescale, price has been rising from the bullish recovery candlestick on October 21. BTC created a small bearish candlestick on October 25, but there are no clear signs of weaknesses in the daily data yet.
The MACD, RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are on the rise, and have yet to generate any bearish divergence.
The shorter term six and two hour charts are showing the first signs of weakness in their trading structures .
During the two most recent highs, the RSI generated bearish divergences and the price created a falling star candlestick
These are bearish signs indicating that a correction could follow shortly. In this case, the closest support levels are near $ 12,300 and $ 12,040, which are the 0.5 e 0.618 fibonacci levels of the most recent highs. This last zone also coincides with the previous resistance, which should now serve as support.
The two hour graph shows a possible ascending parallel channel. As of this writing, the price was in the process of creating a hammer candlestick, and moving past the middle of the channel.
The move of BTC above or below the channel could be the short term trigger that will determine the direction of the next trend. A passage under the canal would likely lower the course to the aforementioned support areas. On the contrary, a passage above the channel could be followed by a new test of the long term resistance zone of $ 13,500-14,000.
Due to the weaknesses in the short / medium term timescales, a passage under the channel seems more plausible. That said, the long term trend is bullish.